Energy Regulations Board February 2023 Fuel Review: Expectations

On Tuesday, the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) is expected to have their monthly fuel review and adjust the fuel cost for the month of March 2023 based on how the international fuel market has performed in February 2023. Now the ERB will uses two factors in determining the price of this fuel for next month: international price of oil and the exchange rate of Kwacha to Dollar. And they remind us of this every single day across all media platforms. 

Global oil markets have continued to be volatile since the beginning of the year – and this volatility has continued into February.

Oil prices rose at the end of January as markets anticipated tighter supply due to China ending its zero-Covid policy and reigniting its economy, along with constraints from sanctions on Russian oil and a concerted move from OPEC+ nations to cut production. This has kept oil prices floating around $87 a barrel.

Industry analysts still anticipate that prices will rise – possibly over $90 or $100 a barrel – in the future but expect it will stay range-bound in the short term. China will make up nearly half of this year's oil demand growth after it relaxed its COVID-19 curbs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week, but restrained OPEC+ production could mean a supply deficit in the second half of the year.

On the other hand, the Kwacha has been taking an unguarded beating from all other major currencies. The Kwacha's weakness against the dollar is keeping pressure on local fuel prices, taking a beating from both global conditions – such as a stronger dollar – as well as local failings, like the ongoing uncertainties with debt restructuring. These uncertainties in turn have stalled the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme worth $1.3 billion, a three-year programme aimed to "restore debt sustainability, create fiscal space for essential social spending and strengthen economic governance”. This has left the country in a limbo on how to rebuild its crisis-hit economy after defaulting on its foreign debts in 2020.

If I had a contact at Community House, I would advise the president (and his mine minister) to urgently sort of the situation on the Copperbelt, Mopani Copper Mines and Konkola Copper Mines should quickly secure new investors. Increasing Zambia's copper production is necessary to reduce the country's debt burden as growth in the mining industry will trigger investment in infrastructure, secure jobs, retrigger the contractors’ economy and ultimately buttress the Kwacha. We will diversify the economy in future, but now we need those two mining giants to roar.

What then should we expect from the next ERB review? Unless government decides to play politics, the prices are expected to remain the same or slightly increase as global crude oil prices have had the same averages in the past 2 months. The oil price for Brent crude oils in February was $87.73 per barrel while the price was $87.5 per barrel in January of 2023. However, looking at how free failing the Kwacha has been against the dollar, even an increase on pump price would never surprise me. The Kwacha ended January at less that K19 per dollar but will most likely end February at more than K20 per dollar. 

Add one plus one, dear reader. 

As Zambians, we need to be optimistic that things will improve but this improvement should never be contingent on external help only. External supporters are just looking out for their interests. We should never be blind to this reality. During all this, the Bank of Zambia recently raised the MPR by 25 bps to 9.25% in an attempt to rein in inflation, and the process siphoning out liquidity in the market. All this is compounding the cost of doing business in Zambia and with this, the cost of living. Be agile: plan, replan and plan again.

Happy Weekend!!!!

The Biggest First Fruits Harvest Ceremony in Zambia

The facilitator at today’s plantation meeting had a field day reminding me that this week, one of Zambia’s biggest and spectacular traditional ceremonies in Zambia, will be taking place in the Eastern part of the country. From Friday 23^rd to Sunday, 25^th February 2023, Chipata will be buzzing with a lot of activities for this year’s edition of the Ncwala.

As fate may have it, I stumbled open a treasure trove of the Ngoni (Isinguni) history that puts a spotlight on the background and happenings of Ncwala. This blogger did justice - I think - and I will just add a few of somethings here and there. 

  

Ncwala is also called the 'First Fruits Harvest’ ceremony and has its roots in South Africa.

However, Ncwala didn’t start with Shaka Zulu as it is commonly claimed though it could be true that the Ngoni broke away from the Nguni speaking people of South Africa. The ceremony dates back way back, even before the birth of the Zulu acclaimed leader. Even the Ngonis inspirational figurehead, Zwangendaba was born when the ceremony was already a birthed entity. With it, Zwangendaba left his tribal St Lucia Bay area to embark of a dramatic and monumental journey that spanned more than three decades and covered an astonishing 5000 plus kilometers.

He crossed the Zambezi River in 1835, 7 years after the death of Shaka Zulu in 1828. When Zwangendaba died in 1845 and got buried in Nakpnde, his kingdom disintegrated, forming many sister kingdoms around Central Africa.

The faction led by his eldest son, Nthutho or simply Mphezeni settled in Chipata, East of Zambia. It's this same group that would take a lead and indeed act as a poster group in treasuring the ceremony. From the first Mphezeni the ceremony was celebrated. But in the evenings of his life, a new adversary of the Ngonis that was looming nearby would put a crushing end to a centuries’ old tradition.

Note that the name ‘Mpezeni’ doesn’t mean anything in Isinguni. The actual name is ‘Mphezeni’ and in its full its Inkosi Yamakhosi Mphezeni KaZwangendaba. Mphezeni is gotten from the word ‘Ukupheza.

The British had been told by their intelligence that Mphezeni's land was rich in minerals. Thus, they set to colonize the area. But it was not easy. Nsingu, Mphezeni's eldest son and crown Prince realized that the whites were taking over his father's land clandestinely. He would not allow it, even if it meant fighting with his life.

In 1897 he led his regiment and attacked the British station in the Luangeni area. The British sent in reinforcements from neighboring Fort Manning. The Ngonis revolt was halted. Nsingu was captured and executed after being tried in a kangaroo court. But this was not enough, the British also confiscated 12000 cattle from the Ngonis, burn their villages and fields. The last nail on the coffin was banning the holding of the Ncwala describing it as being 'war like'.

Mphezeni's grandson, Chiloah Jere took over after his grandfather death in 1900. But the royal pilgrimage was never held during his reign. It was under his son's reign, Pontino Jele that the Incwala was resurrected in 1980. Since the time it was revamped, King Mphezeni moves from his Ekuphendukeni Palace at Feni to Lawini at Mtengeluni every year in February.

The King is initially secluded where he goes through a cultural rebirth. At Lawini, the King acquires new power from Nkulukulu to govern the people. Traditionally, he is supposed to go into seclusion and fasting for at least 3 days. When he comes out, the people come to worship their Ngwenyama for he has survived meeting with Nkulunkulu.

Legend says some Kings were struck dead during the seclusion period. During the last day of the event at the Mtengeluni arena, a black bull is speared, and King Mphezeni is given its blood which he drinks.

The Black Bull serves two purposes:

1. Affirming to the King that his Impis (soldiers) were ready for battle. In those days they killed it with bare hands, no rope no nothing only the spear!!! Blackness represents completeness. White colour is not revered. It has to be a black bull without spot.

2. The death of the bull spiritually represents the death of the past, starting afresh in new, after the King has returned alive from seclusion (where He receives a message from Nkulukulu). The bull’s blood is drunk as a sign of brevity and recharging the spirit.

The ceremony in original Nguni custom is supposed to be held in December, the last full moon to be exact. When the King consumes ukhamba/igobongo that is concocted with iNcwala/uSelwa for 7 days before the full moon.

 If there’s any place you should be this weekend, is in Chipata. Goodspeed, comrade!